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Prediction markets: Polymarket and X: the new Bloomberg Terminal

Last week’s announcement of a formal partnership between Polymarket and X (formerly Twitter) marks a pivotal moment, not just for Polymarket but for the prediction markets category as a whole. For the first time, markets that price the future are getting mainstream distribution and real-time feedback loops from one of the internet’s largest networks.

Prediction markets have long been a darling of economists and technologists. The logic is simple: when people have money on the line, they think harder and correct errors faster. If a politician has a 50% chance of winning but his market is trading at $0.32, traders will buy until it reflects consensus. If it hits $0.65, others will sell or short. They basically price in collective intelligence before the headlines catch up. But it’s only with blockchains that prediction markets have started to actually work.

Blockchains remove the legal and infrastructure bottlenecks that killed past attempts at prediction markets. There’s no trusted intermediary, no custodian, no back office and certainly no shady bookies. Just a smart contract and financial incentives. This unlocks 24/7 global participation, uncensorable market creation, and lower barriers to access. That’s how Polymarket processed close to $9 billion in 2024 volume and became the world’s most accurate forecaster of elections and major events. I’m sure you came across it during the US elections. All this without a marketing team, without a mobile app, or even any access to US punters.

The product now launching with X combines Polymarket’s real-time odds with X’s social data and Grok’s AI summaries, essentially building a new kind of Bloomberg Terminal driven not by journalists or algorithms alone, but by market incentives. Unlike polls, prediction markets are hard to manipulate. And unlike voting, they reward accuracy over time. The better you are at forecasting, the more capital and influence you will gain. To give it a nice shine, these markets aren’t just more efficient, they’re more meritocratic.

If “markets are the best-known way to pull knowledge from the edge” as Chris Dixon puts it, blockchain is what finally made them work at scale. And now, with X as a distribution layer, we’re likely to see prediction markets evolve from a crypto-native niche into one of the most important public interfaces for interpreting the future.

Also this week

Relevant financial updates

  • Spark, an onchain capital allocator that is part of the Sky (fka MakerDAO) ecosystem and provides DeFi infrastructure centered around the USDS (fka DAI) stablecoin, launched its token which is now trading at a $422mln FDV
  • Bitmap*, a protocol creating infrastructure and tools that convert Bitcoin blocks into digital land parcels using Ordinals inscriptions has been acquired by Skrybit for an undisclosed amount
  • Yupp*, a blockchain-powered platform that enables users to compare outputs from multiple AI models side by side, select their preferred response, and provide feedback, has raised $33mln in a Seed funding round with investments from Coinbase Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz, Gokul Rajaram, Kunal Shah, Biz Stone and 9 others
  • PrismaX*, a blockchain-powered robotics intelligence platform enabling people to project their skills into otherwise unreachable environments, has raised $11mln in a Seed funding round with investments from Crypto Startup School (CSX), Volt Capital, Blockchain Builders Fund, Stanford Blockchain Club and Virtuals Protocol.
  • Ubyx, a clearing system that enables banks, fintechs, and individuals to deposit stablecoins from various issuers and receive full value in existing accounts, has raised $10mln in a Seed funding round with investments from Coinbase Ventures, Galaxy Ventures, Mirana Ventures, Founders Fund, VanEck and 5 others
  • Eigenlayer*, a protocol on Ethereum that introduces restaking, allowing for the reuse of staked ETH to secure additional applications, has raised $70mln in a Private Token Sale funding round with investments from Andreessen Horowitz.
  • XFX*, an infrastructure product for cross-border settlement, supporting both fiat and stablecoin transactions, has raised $9.10mln in a Seed funding round with investments from Coinbase Ventures, Castle Island Ventures, Haun Ventures, Paxos, Oak HC/FT and 1 other
  • Project Eleven (11)*, a research and development firm focused on protecting Bitcoin and other digital assets against quantum-computing threats, has raised $6mln in a Seed funding round with investments from Castle Island Ventures, Variant, Quantonation, Nebular and Formation
  • Gradient Network*, a decentralized edge computing platform built on Solana that aims to provide accessible, affordable, and inclusive compute services, has raised $10mln in a Seed funding round with investments from Pantera Capital, Multicoin Capital and Sequoia Capital
  • Uptopia*, a launchpad and discovery platform that enables gaming studios and communities to integrate on-chain “Game Coins,” leveraging blockchain-based monetization and virality, has raised $4mln in a Pre Seed funding round with investments from Coinbase Ventures, Spartan Group, Pantera Capital, Vessel Capital, Arche Fund and 3 others
  • TON Applications Chain (TAC)*, a Layer 1 blockchain designed to enable Ethereum-compatible decentralized applications to connect with the TON and Telegram ecosystems, has raised $5mln in a Strategic funding round with investments from Hack VC
  • Wildcard*, a web-based gaming company that offers a PvP collectible-card based arena action game, has raised $6.50mln in a funding round with investments from Paradigm and Arbitrum Gaming Ventures

*Underlying TBV portfolio position | Prices as per 20/06

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